Weekend Box Office Predictions: May 28 – 31, 2021

Weekend box office predictions are provided by Daniel Garris, courtesy of BoxOfficeReport.com.

This weekend the domestic box office will make further strides towards recovery with the release of Paramount’s A Quiet Place Part II and Disney’s Cruella over the Memorial Day holiday frame. With respective opening weekend location counts of 3,892 for Cruella and 3,726 for A Quiet Place Part II, the films will have the two largest location counts since the re-opening of domestic theatres (surpassing the previous high-water mark of 3,379 locations reached by Warner’s Those Who Wish Me Dead in its second weekend of release this past weekend).

Paramount’s much anticipated horror sequel A Quiet Place Part II finally makes its way to theatres this weekend. The John Krasinski directed film starring Emily Blunt had originally been scheduled to open in March of 2020 before being delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2018’s A Quiet Place had a true break-out performance at the box office with a debut of $50.20 million and displayed very strong holding power to eventually gross $188.02 million domestically. As was the case with the original A Quiet Place, critical reviews for A Quiet Place Part II have been very strong. A Quiet Place Part II is no doubt one of the higher profile releases since the re-opening of domestic theatres and the film will also have some advantages that other higher profile films since re-opening haven’t had. As mentioned, A Quiet Place Part II will be playing in a truly wide 3,726 locations this weekend. The film also looks to be getting the highest opening weekend showtimes per location average of any wide release since re-opening, just ahead of Tenet, (and that is with capacity limits continuing to ease throughout the United States as time goes on) and will be playing on IMAX screens. A Quiet Place Part II will have Thursday night preview shows beginning at 5PM and with the addition of Monday’s Memorial Day holiday, the film’s opening weekend frame (as well as that of Cruella) will essentially be 4 & 1/2 days. That is very similar to the five-day opening frame Godzilla vs. Kong had earlier this year, which saw that film debut with $48.10 million during its first five days. While relative pre-release buzz for A Quiet Place Part II doesn’t feel on quite the same level as that of Godzilla vs. Kong, the mentioned advantages A Quiet Place Part II will have should help make up for that this weekend. Look for A Quiet Place Part II to have the largest three-day weekend debut of any film since the re-opening of theatres with $39.5 million and for the film to gross $48.5 million over the four-day holiday frame (which would be just ahead of the five-day start of Godzilla vs. Kong).

Also arriving in theatres this weekend is Disney’s Cruella. The re-imagined prequel was directed by Craig Gillespie and stars Emma Stone and Emma Thompson. On the average, critical reviews for Cruella have been good, but not great (though that’s probably better than many had been expecting). With its mentioned location count of 3,892 this weekend, Cruella will actually be playing in more theatres than A Quiet Place Part II this weekend, but A Quiet Place Part II will make up for that and then some by having a significantly larger showtimes per location average than Cruella this weekend. Cruella will have Thursday night preview shows beginning at 6PM. While 101 Dalmatians is one of Disney’s more popular all-time animated films when adjusted for inflation, Cruella will have some factors going against it as well this weekend. The film will be opening day-and-date on Disney+ as a Primer Access title (which seemed to have a negative impact of the opening weekend performance of Raya and the Last Dragon at the box office back in March) and with a PG-13 rating, the film likely won’t be quite as family friendly at the box office as previous live-action re-imaginings of Disney animated films. Opening against the more anticipated A Quiet Place Part II will also limit the relative potential for Cruella this weekend, though in turn that decision could also help out the holding power of Cruella going forward. A three-day debut of $19.5 million would give Cruella the fifth largest three-day opening weekend since the re-opening of domestic theatres and would transfer into a four-day second place start of $24.5 million over the holiday frame.

Lionsgate’s Spiral: From the Book of Saw and United Artists Releasing and MGM’s Wrath of Man should both fall two spots this weekend to claim third and fourth place. Last weekend Spiral declined 47 percent to gross $4.60 million in its second weekend, while Wrath of Man decreased just 20 percent to take in $2.98 million. Wrath of Man should continue to hold up significantly better than Spiral this weekend, especially since Spiral will be taking a much bigger showtimes per location hit this weekend and will also be losing its IMAX screens to A Quiet Place Part II. With that said, Spiral should still stay just ahead of Wrath of Man in this weekend’s rankings. Spiral could take third over the four-day frame with $2.8 million (which would be a sizable 39 percent decrease from last weekend’s three-day frame) and Wrath of Man could follow closely behind in fourth with $2.5 million over the four-day frame (which would be a decline of just 16 percent from last weekend’s three-day gross).

After moving into fourth place last weekend, Disney’s Raya and the Last Dragon will likely fall back into fifth place this weekend (which would represent five fifth place finishes for the film over a six-week period). Raya and the Last Dragon continued to hold up exceptionally well last weekend by declining a very slim 2 percent to gross $1.67 million. Look for Raya and the Last Dragon to hold up very well once again this weekend, especially with aid from Memorial Day on Monday (which is typically a strong day for family films) and from some drive-in double-feature shows with Cruella. A 20 percent increase over last weekend’s three-day performance would give Raya and the Last Dragon $2.0 million over the four-day frame and move the film past the $50 million domestic mark.

As for this weekend’s other holdovers over the four-day frame, look for Warner Bros. and Legendary’s Godzilla vs. Kong to decline a slim 7 percent to gross $1.3 million for sixth (as the film inches closer to the $100 million domestic mark), for Funimation and Aniplex’s Demon Slayer -Kimetsu no Yaiba- The Movie: Mugen Train to decrease just 16 percent to gross $1.1 million for seventh and for Warner Bros. and New Line’s Those Who Wish Me Dead to fall a sharp 48 percent to gross $1.0 million for eighth place.

Read full predictions at BoxOfficeReport.com

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