Weekend Box Office Predictions: May 21 – 23, 2021

Weekend box office predictions are provided by Daniel Garris, courtesy of BoxOfficeReport.com.

This weekend Lionsgate’s Spiral: From the Book of Saw shouldn’t have a problem leading the domestic box office for a second consecutive frame. Last weekend Spiral debuted in first place with $8.75 million. While that was less than had been widely expected heading into the weekend, it still represented the eighth largest three-day opening weekend since the re-opening of domestic theatres. Saw films typically suffer very sharp second weekend declines, as the franchise’s more recent installments have all experienced second weekend declines in the range of 61 – 68 percent. While as a Saw film, Spiral will no doubt have some built-in front-loading (especially since the film showcased initial front-loading towards Friday this past weekend), the film will also likely have a much better than usual second weekend hold for a Saw film. For starters, Spiral isn’t coming off of the same type of opening that is typical for a Saw film. And Spiral won’t have to deal with much new competition this weekend, which will help allow the film to hold onto most of its showtimes (and IMAX screens) from last weekend. Spiral will be playing in 185 more locations than last weekend, for a total of 2,996 locations this weekend. Spiral could also get an additional boost this weekend from horror fans who want to catch the film before Paramount’s A Quiet Place Part II arrives in the marketplace on May 28 and Warner’s The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It opens the following week on June 4. With all of that in mind, BoxOfficeReport expects Spiral to decline a still sizable 49 percent this weekend for a second weekend haul of $4.50 million.

Upon taking a significant hit to its showtimes per location average last weekend, United Artists Releasing and MGM’s Wrath of Man is likely to stabilize greatly this weekend. In its second weekend, Wrath of Man declined a sharp 55 percent to gross $3.70 million. That was very similar to the 56 percent Nobody declined in its second weekend back in early April (when it had to deal with the opening weekend of Godzilla vs. Kong). Nobody was able to rebound in a big way during its third weekend, by declining only 12 percent. While Wrath of Man may not be able to hold up quite that well this weekend, the film could come close to doing so, especially since this weekend’s showtimes per location hold looks to be stronger for Wrath of Man than it was for Nobody during its third weekend. Holdovers in general will also get a boost this weekend from the relative lack of new competition and from moviegoers who want to catch a film this weekend before Disney’s Cruella and the mentioned A Quiet Place Part II both open over Memorial Day weekend next week. Look for Wrath of Man to decrease just 18 percent this weekend to remain in second place with $3.05 million.

Despite opening in 3,188 locations last weekend, Warner and New Line’s Those Who Wish Me Dead was only able to debut with a modest $2.83 million. Previous Warner Bros. day-and-date releases have all experienced sharp second weekend declines, but Those Who Wish Me Dead could be the exception to that rule given that being on HBO Max probably already affected the opening weekend performance of Those Who Wish Me Dead more so than other previous day-and-date Warner Bros. releases. Those Who Wish Me Dead will also get a boost from holding onto most of its showtimes from last weekend and also looks to be going over fairly well with audiences after receiving a respectable B rating on CinemaScore. Those Who Wish Me Dead could decline a very solid 33 percent this weekend to take in a still modest $1.90 million.

After claiming fifth place each of the previous four frames, Disney’s Raya and the Last Dragon is likely to move into fourth place this weekend. Last weekend Raya and the Last Dragon declined a slim 11 percent to gross $1.70 million (and that was with the film’s previous weekend gross having been inflated by the Mother’s Day holiday). Raya and the Last Dragon will actually be facing some unexpected new competition for family audiences this weekend, as Warner’s Scoob! is receiving a domestic theatrical release this weekend (just over a year after premiering on HBO Max). However, this weekend’s release of Scoob! will be more in line with that of a re-issue, given the lack of marketing and limited amount of showtimes per location, so it shouldn’t have too much of an effect on Raya and the Last Dragon this weekend (it also remains to be seen if this weekend’s gross for Scoob! is even officially reported). The PG-rated Dream Horse should have some appeal with family audiences as well this weekend. The new competition for family audiences may prevent Raya and the Last Dragon from increasing over last weekend’s performance, but it won’t prevent Raya and the Last Dragon from having another terrific hold. A very slim 3 percent decrease would transfer into $1.65 million this weekend for Raya and the Last Dragon.

Funimation and Aniplex’s Demon Slayer -Kimetsu no Yaiba- The Movie: Mugen Train and Warner and Legendary’s Godzilla vs. Kong both held up very nicely last weekend and both films should have even stronger percentage holds this weekend. Last weekend Demon Slayer The Movie: Mugen Train was down 36 percent to gross $1.75 million, while Godzilla vs. Kong declined just 23 percent to gross $1.52 million. Both films will be aided this weekend by very strong showtimes per location holds in comparison to last weekend, especially Godzilla vs. Kong. This weekend Demon Slayer The Movie: Mugen Train could decrease just 14 percent to take fifth with $1.50 million and Godzilla vs. Kong could decline a slim 5 percent to follow closely behind in sixth with $1.45 million.

Arriving in theatres this weekend is Bleecker Street’s Dream Horse. The Euros Lyn directed sports film starring Toni Collette had originally been scheduled to be released in May 2020, before being delayed. Critical reviews for Dream Horse have been strong. Dream Horse will be playing in a semi-wide 1,256 locations this weekend and will have Thursday preview shows beginning at 7PM. The film could have an opening weekend performance similar to both Here Today and Finding You, which respectively opened with $1.04 million and $0.92 million over the past two weekends in semi-wide release. Look for Dream Horse to debut in seventh place with $1.10 million this weekend.

Read full predictions at BoxOfficeReport.com

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