Weekend Box Office Predictions: May 14 – 16, 2021

Weekend box office predictions are provided by Daniel Garris, courtesy of BoxOfficeReport.com.

The early summer movie season continues on this weekend with the release of five significant new releases. Leading this weekend’s pack of new films is Lionsgate’s Spiral: From the Book of Saw. The re-launch of the Saw franchise was directed by Darren Lynn Bousman and stars Chris Rock and Samuel L. Jackson. As we have seen recently with films such as Demon Slayer The Movie: Mugen TrainMortal Kombat and last weekend’s Wrath of Man, films targeted at niche adult audiences are starting to inch closer to the type of performances similar films would have in the pre-pandemic era. Spiral will be playing in 2,811 locations this weekend, which is very similar to the type of opening weekend location count a Saw film would receive in more typical circumstances. Spiral will have Thursday preview shows beginning at 6PM and will also be playing on IMAX screens this weekend. The presence of Rock and Jackson in the film could also expand the potential audience for Spiral beyond the typical audience for Saw films. Critical reviews for Spiral have been mixed. One factor that will limit potential for Spiral this weekend is that the film’s opening weekend showtimes per location average looks to be more in line with those of films such as Wrath of Man and Nobody rather than those for films such as Demon Slayer The Movie: Mugen Train and Mortal Kombat. BoxOfficeReport expects Spiral to debut in first place this weekend with $13.30 million. That would give Spiral a healthy per-location average of $4,731 for the frame and would represent the sixth largest three-day opening weekend since the re-opening of domestic theatres. It would also be in roughly the same ballpark as the $16.64 million pre-pandemic start of 2017’s Jigsaw.

After debuting in first place with a very solid $8.31 million last weekend; United Artists Releasing and MGM’s Wrath of Man looks like it will be able to hold off this weekend’s new releases not named Spiral to claim second place. Critical reviews for Wrath of Man have been good and the film looks to be going over a bit better with audiences after receiving a healthy A- rating on CinemaScore. At the same time, with five new films entering the marketplace, Wrath of Man will take a hit from losing a significant amount of showtimes from last weekend, as well as IMAX screens to SpiralWrath of Man will get a small boost this weekend from playing in 132 more locations than last weekend (for a total of 3,007 locations). Back in early April, Nobody declined 56 percent in its second weekend while going up against the opening weekend of Godzilla vs. Kong, before stabilizing greatly the following weekend. Wrath of Man could find itself in a similar situation this weekend, before starting to stabilize next weekend. Look for Wrath of Man to decline a sharp 54 percent from last weekend to place in second this weekend with $3.85 million.

Warner Bros. is releasing New Line’s Those Who Wish Me Dead day-and-date this weekend theatrically and via streaming on HBO Max. The action-thriller was directed by Taylor Sheridan and stars Angelina Jolie. While critical reviews for Those Who Wish Me Dead have been solid, overall anticipation for the film appears to be rather modest. Perhaps more so than any other day-and-date release from Warner Bros. thus far, the box office potential for Those Who Wish Me Dead could be negatively impacted by being available on HBO Max, as it feels like a film that moviegoers may be more willing to watch at home rather than venturing out to a theatre to catch it. Those Who Wish Me Dead could find itself just behind Wrath of Man this weekend with a third place debut of $3.60 million.

Netflix’s Army of the Dead will serve as an interesting theatrical experiment this weekend. The Zack Snyder directed action-horror film stars Dave Bautista. Before starting to stream on Netflix next weekend, Army of the Dead will have a one-week moderate run in Cinemark theatres and a few other smaller theatrical chains. While there appears to be some interest in the film, box office potential for Army of the Dead will be limited by the film’s location count, especially since the film doesn’t look to be getting multiple screens at most locations either. It also looks like Thursday preview shows for the film will be rather limited. With a strong per-showtime average, Army of the Dead could take fourth place this weekend (assuming a weekend gross is officially reported for the film) with a launch of $2.20 million.

With the aid of starting to play in the Cinemark and Regal theatre chains and the Mother’s Day holiday on Sunday, Disney’s Raya and the Last Dragon was up an exceptional 39 percent last weekend to gross $1.92 million. While the film obviously won’t be able to hold up that well again this weekend, Raya and the Last Dragon is extremely likely to have this weekend’s strongest percentage hold among holdovers currently in wide release. A 22 percent decline would give Raya and the Last Dragon $1.50 million this weekend and a fourth consecutive fifth place finish. Meanwhile, Funimation Films and Aniplex’s Demon Slayer -Kimetsu no Yaiba- The Movie: Mugen Train could finish just behind Raya in sixth place with $1.40 million (which would represent a 49 percent decline from last weekend).

The weekend’s other two new wide releases are Focus’ Profile and Roadside Attractions’ Finding You. Critical reviews for the Timur Bekmambetov directed Profile have been respectable, while as of publishing there have only been a handful of critical reviews for the Brian Baugh directed Finding YouProfile will be playing in more locations than Finding You this weekend (2,033 locations in comparison to 1,314 locations), but Finding You could have the better weekend per-location average between the two. Awareness for both films feels quite low to begin with and on top of that both films will be receiving a below average amount of showtimes per location this weekend. Profile and Finding You could battle it out for seventh and eighth place this weekend with respective opening weekend grosses of $1.35 million for Profile and $1.30 million for Finding You.

And depending on just how much Warner’s Godzilla vs. Kong and Mortal Kombat fall this weekend, we could potentially have as many as ten films crossing the $1 million mark for the frame. With both films taking a significant showtimes hit from last weekend, Godzilla vs. Kong could decline 42 percent to gross $1.15 million for ninth, while Mortal Kombat should remain front-loaded by falling 56 percent to gross $1.05 million for tenth.

Read full predictions at BoxOfficeReport.com

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