Awards analysis is provided by Sean from @MathTeacherMovies.
As the dust around the Oscars continues to settle and we begin to look forward to next year’s awards season, I would like to make a fool of myself and try to predict the film categories of the MTV Movie & TV Awards in the same way I predict the Oscars: by overthinking it, taking it too seriously, and then being wrong. So enjoy this ridiculous analysis for the fun and silly MTV Movie & TV Awards.
“Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan”
“Judas and the Black Messiah”
“Promising Young Woman”
Predicted Winner: “To All the Boys: Always and Forever”
Judas and the Black Messiah and Promising Young Woman are the best and most serious movies on this list, so they definitely won’t win as the MTV Movie & TV Awards are anything but. Animated movies don’t have a great track record, so Soul will be out. Borat is a comedy so it could win the big award, but there will most likely be a militant contingent of teens supporting the final film of the To All the Boys trilogy that could push that film to a victory.
Predicted Winner: “Cobra Kai”
“Emily in Paris”
This is the category where anyone can win as all of these shows are each popular in certain corners of the internet. Wandavision might be divisive among fans and The Boys might turn off some viewers with its violence. Emily in Paris probably didn’t bribe enough teens. This leaves Bridgerton and Cobra Kai. I will give the edge to Cobra Kai as it was a hit for all types of audiences and popular on the internet.
BEST PERFORMANCE IN A MOVIE
Carey Mulligan – “Promising Young Woman”
Predicted Winner: Chadwick Boseman – “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Daniel Kaluuya – “Judas and the Black Messiah”
Sacha Baron Cohen – “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Zendaya – “Malcolm & Marie”
The last time I predicted Chadwick Boseman for an award, Joaquin Phoenix mumbled Anthony Hopkins and then sauntered off of the stage, so it feels difficult to say it will be him with great certainty. However, the youth of the internet probably won’t make the same mistake as the Academy did. There can always be an upset AS WE KNOW! But this would be great way to finally honor Boseman.
BEST PERFORMANCE IN A SHOW
Anya Taylor-Joy – “The Queen’s Gambit”
Predicted Winner: Elizabeth Olsen – “WandaVision”
Elliot Page – “The Umbrella Academy”
Emma Corrin – “The Crown”
Michaela Coel – “I May Destroy You”
Elizabeth Olsen or Anya Taylor-Joy seem like the best bets for who will win based on the popularity of both their shows and their performances, but I will give the edge to Olsen for everyone’s love of Wandavision. Emma Corrin and Elliot Page are great in their shows but don’t exactly stand out. It all comes down to how many voters watched I May Destroy You because Michaela Coel might have an impact and it would be justice for her Golden Globes snub.
Predicted Winner: Anthony Mackie – “The Falcon and the Winter Soldier”
Gal Gadot – “Wonder Woman 1984”
Jack Quaid – “The Boys”
Pedro Pascal – “The Mandalorian”
Teyonah Parris – “WandaVision”
There really isn’t a standout hero on here besides Anthony Mackie. His would be a worthy win and voters might be swayed by a recency bias. Wonder Woman 1984 was disappointing. Teyonah Parris is a great character but not the standout in that show. Jack Quaid seems out of place in this category. As such, Mackie’s only threat is Pedro Pascal for the popular Mandalorian but it’s difficult to vote for a hero who is masked for the majority of the time.
Chase Stokes & Madelyn Cline – “Outer Banks”
Jodie Comer & Sandra Oh – “Killing Eve”
Lily Collins & Lucas Bravo – “Emily in Paris”
Maitreyi Ramakrishnan & Jaren Lewison – “Never Have I Ever”
Predicted Winner: Regé-Jean Page & Phoebe Dynevor – “Bridgerton”
It’s currently the most popular show and has the most beautiful couple. Bridgerton will be winning as it is a satisfying moment for the characters (disclaimer here: I didn’t actually watch Bridgerton. I just couldn’t. This projection is based on my internet research). The rest of these kisses are rather forgettable.
BEST COMEDIC PERFORMANCE
Annie Murphy – “Schitt’s Creek”
Eric Andre – “Bad Trip”
Issa Rae – “Insecure”
Predicted Winner: Jason Sudeikis – “Ted Lasso”
Leslie Jones – “Coming 2 America”
There are some great nominees on this list but the largest standout is Jason Sudeiskis at the center of the most popular and beloved show of this year. Annie Murphy could possibly ride the Schitt’s Creek bump or Issa Rae could, deservedly, be an upset, but this has Sudeikis written all over it.
Aya Cash – “The Boys
Ewan McGregor – “Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn)”
Giancarlo Esposito – “The Mandalorian”
Predicted Winner: Kathryn Hahn – “WandaVision”
Nicholas Hoult – “The Great”
While Hoult’s character is obviously a bad guy and will probably become the antagonist of the second season, he was hardly a villain in The Great. Esposito was a great villain but wasn’t a stand out of the second season of The Mandalorian. McGregor was also a wonderful villain but in a movie that was unfortunately not too popular. This comes down to Aya Cash or Kathryn Hahn. They both have similar styles of villainy and both are the most fun portions of their seasons. I think Hahn has the edge but it can be either of them.
Antonia Gentry – “Ginny & Georgia”
Ashley Park – “Emily in Paris”
Maria Bakalova – “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan”
Paul Mescal – “Normal People”
Predicted Winner: Regé-Jean Page – “Bridgerton”
This is easily a neck and neck race between Maria Bakalova and Rege-Jean Page even though I would personally go with Paul Mescal. Maria Bakalova has the Oscar momentum, but that doesn’t hold much weight in the MTV community but that her role in a Borat movie does hold weight. However, Rege-Jean Page came out of Bridgerton like a rocket and is easily the one that will be holding the Golden Popcorn at the end of the night.
“Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn)” – Final Funhouse Fight
“Cobra Kai” – Finale House Fight
Predicted Winner: “The Boys” – Starlight, Queen Maeve, Kimiko vs. Stormfront
“WandaVision” – Wanda vs. Agatha
“Zack Snyder’s Justice League” – Final Fight vs. Steppenwolf
It’s a shame that Godzilla vs Kong did not qualify for this year because that would seal the deal. I would love it if Birds of Prey could win, but it doesn’t seem popular. Wandavision’s final fight is fairly boring and the Justice League isn’t famous for that fight. The Boys fight is pretty exceptional but so is Cobra Kai, but I think The Boys might come out on top in this one.
MOST FRIGHTENED PERFORMANCE
Predicted Winner: Elisabeth Moss – “The Invisible Man”
Jurnee Smollett – “Lovecraft Country”
Simona Brown – “Behind Her Eyes”
Victoria Pedretti – “The Haunting of Bly Manor”
Vince Vaughn – “Freaky”
This often goes to a star actor in a standout film, both of which are popular. The only possible winner in that category is Elisabeth Moss in Invisible Man, which would be another course correction from this year’s Oscars.
“Barb & Star Go To Vista Del Mar” – Star (Kristen Wiig) & Barb (Annie Mumolo)
“The Falcon and the Winter Soldier” – Falcon (Anthony Mackie) & Winter Soldier (Sebastian Stan)
Predicted Winner: “The Mandalorian” – Din Djarin (Pedro Pascal) & Grogu
“Emily in Paris” – Emily Cooper (Lily Collins) & Mindy Chen (Ashley Park)
“Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan” – Borat Sagdiyev (Sacha Baron Cohen) & Tutar Sagdiyev (Maria Bakalova)
The Falcon and the Winter Soldier are probably the best pair in this list, but there is no doubt in mind that the winner will be the Mandalorian himself and Grogu and everyone including myself will be more than happy with that win. Sometimes the comedic duo can win the list and Barb and Star can shock them all, but no one can deny the power of Grogu.
The MTV Movie & TV Awards are obviously silly, but they sometimes remark on the future taste and popularity in movies. While it’s done through internet voting, it sometimes nails it in terms of quality and always delivers in the fun. The show airs next Sunday.