Weekend box office predictions are provided by Daniel Garris, courtesy of BoxOfficeReport.com.
After last weekend’s exceptional first place start, Warner Bros. and Legendary’s Godzilla vs. Kong is set to easily remain in first place this weekend. Godzilla vs. Kong is coming off of the largest domestic start of any film since the re-opening of theatres, as revised global estimates place last weekend’s five-day start at $48.0 million (with an estimated $31.7 million of that total coming from the three-day weekend). Previous films within the MonsterVerse universe have all had sharp second weekend declines, as 2014’s Godzilla fell 67 percent, 2017’s Kong: Skull Island decreased 54 percent and 2019’s Godzilla: King of the Monsters slowed 68 percent. In comparison to those films, Godzilla vs. Kong will benefit from coming of a five-day opening as opposed to a three-day opening and will also be aided by its strong word of mouth (Godzilla vs. Kong received an A rating on CinemaScore). Also helping out Godzilla vs. Kong this weekend is that the film looks to be holding onto its average showtimes per location very well in comparison to last weekend. At the same time, thus far Warner Bros. day-and-date releases that debuted theatrically and via streaming on HBO Max have all had sharp second weekend declines, likely due to post-opening weekend audiences being more likely to watch films via streaming than moviegoers who would typically rush out on opening weekend. Last month Tom & Jerry declined 54 percent in its second weekend and it’s very possible that Godzilla vs. Kong could experience a similar decline this weekend. A 55 percent decrease would give Godzilla vs. Kong $14.2 million this weekend. In the bigger picture, by the end of this weekend Godzilla vs. Kong will already be the highest grossing film domestically since the re-opening of theatres (passing fellow Warner Bros. release Tenet).
Moving past Godzilla vs. Kong, the rest of this weekend’s likely top 5 could be very crowded together.
Last weekend Universal’s Nobody declined a sharp 56 percent in to gross just under $3 million in its second frame. With the opening weekend of Godzilla vs. Kong behind it, the well-received Nobody is likely to stabilize nicely this weekend. One factor that will prevent Nobody from having an even better hold this weekend is that it looks like the film’s average showtimes per location will be taking a significant hit from last weekend. Nobody could decrease 35 percent to take second place this weekend with $1.95 million.
The weekend’s one new wide release is Lionsgate’s Voyagers. The Neil Burger directed sci-fi film stars Tye Sheridan, Lily-Rose Depp and Colin Farrell. Critical reviews for Voyagers have been poor and there doesn’t seem to be much awareness for the film to begin with. Voyagers will be playing in 1,972 locations this weekend and has Thursday night previews beginning at 6PM. Last month Lionsgate’s Chaos Walking was targeted at a similar audience and debuted with $3.78 million. With less buzz around it, no IMAX boost and less opening weekend showtimes per location, Voyagers opening to roughly half of what Chaos Walking opened with feels reasonable. Look for Voyagers to debut in third place this weekend with $1.85 million.
Sony’s The Unholy could drop to fourth place this weekend after debuting in second place last weekend with $3.15 million. Word of mouth for The Unholy looks to be rather average after the film received a C+ rating on CinemaScore, which is so-so for a horror film. The Unholy will be helped out a bit by holding onto its showtimes per location nicely this weekend and could also get a small boost from moviegoers who would still like to catch the film after catching Godzilla vs. Kong first last weekend. A respectable 45 percent decline would transfer into $1.75 million for The Unholy this weekend.
Meanwhile, Disney’s Raya and the Last Dragon and Warner’s Tom & Jerry could both re-stabilize this weekend after both films experienced sizable declines last weekend. In addition to both films rebounding after the initial rush-out for Godzilla vs. Kong, family films in general tend to hold up very well the weekend after East weekend. Raya and the Last Dragon could decline a slim 17 percent from last weekend to take in $1.70 million, while Tom & Jerry could decrease just 27 percent to register $0.95 million.