Awards analysis is provided by Sean from @MathTeacherMovies.
The Screen Actors Guild awards, the last awards show before the Oscars, aired last night and they are considered to most accurately predict Oscars wins as fellow actors and the Academy vote for the nominees. There are years where the SAGs simply confirm the buzz of who will win, others that calm the chaos of a crazy awards season, and ones that cause chaos. This year seems to be a combination of the three.
Chadwick Boseman won the Best Actor award for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and Daniel Kaluuya won the Best Supporting Actor award for Judas and the Black Messiah, making their paths to an Oscar win all but certain and locked in.
The Best Actress race continues to be unpredictable. Recently, Carey Mulligan was beginning to take shape as the front runner, her great performance riding on the momentum of Promising Young Woman’s popularity. But, Viola Davis’s win last night for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom has reignited some buzz from earlier this season. Davis gave a spectacular performance and her win would solidify a great Oscar’s narrative for her and I’m sure this is not the end of Mulligan. We should also look out for Andra Day: she was nominated for an Oscar and was left out of the SAG nominations for her role in The United States vs Billie Holliday, so I think she has a chance to sneak in for the win in the event that votes between Davis and Mulligan are split.
Because Maria Bakalova is the closest thing to a frontrunner for Best Supporting Actress for Borat Subsequent MovieFilm, it was a surprise to see Youn Yuh-jung win for Minari. However, because film critics and movie-goers are increasingly loving Minari, there is a chance that this win will put Youn in the lead.
Finally, the Best Ensemble award can be tricky because it is not the equivalent to the Oscars’s Best Picture award, but is often treated as such when making predictions. Best Ensemble is meant to go to the best performance by a cast and Trial of the Chicago 7 earned this award without a doubt. It had the best ensemble with the best performances, but should it win Best Picture at the Oscars? Everyone thinks Nomadland is a lock but since its Globes win, it doesn’t seem to have as stable of a foundation.
As the awards season draws to a close over the next few weeks, there will continue to be lots of speculation even though most of the major acting awards seem to be locked in for the most part. I will continue to add to the cacophony of predictions as well, so don’t forget to tune in to next week’s column!