Weekend box office predictions are provided by Daniel Garris, courtesy of BoxOfficeReport.com.
This weekend, Universal’s Nobody will look to end the three-week reign of Raya and the Last Dragon at the top of the domestic box office. Nobody, an R-rated action thriller, was directed by Ilya Naishuller and stars Bob Odenkirk. Nobody will be released in 2,460 locations this weekend and looks to be getting a healthy number of showtimes per location at many theatres. Nobody will have Thursday night previews beginning at 7PM. Critical reviews have been strong for Nobody and the film should benefit this weekend from the limited amount of higher-profile non-family films in the marketplace as of late. Nobody could also get a bit of a boost this weekend from moviegoers who want to catch the film before Warner Bros. releases the highly anticipated Godzilla vs. Kong day-and-date next Wednesday. In recent months a number of films aimed at adult moviegoers have opened in the $3 million to $5 million range, including Honest Thief, Let Him Go, Freaky, The Marksman and The Little Things. But Nobody feels to have a bit more going for it out of the gate than those films, especially with the New York City and Los Angeles markets having now re-opened. Nobody could debut with $6.20 million this weekend, which would give the film a very solid per-location average of $2,520 for the frame.
Disney’s Raya and the Last Dragon is likely to take second place this weekend. With the continued aid of strong word of mouth and the re-opening of theatres in Los Angeles last weekend, Raya and the Last Dragon declined a slim 10 percent to take in $5.13 million. Given that last weekend’s holds were inflated by the re-opening of theatres in Los Angeles (and other parts of California) and that Raya and the Last Dragon will be losing a decent amount of its showtimes due to the arrival of Nobody (as well as playing in 49 fewer locations than last weekend for a total of 2,212 locations), it will be difficult for Raya and the Last Dragon to duplicate last weekend’s percentage hold. But in the bigger picture, Raya and the Last Dragon should continue to hold up very well this weekend, especially with no new family films entering the marketplace once again. A 22 percent decline would transfer into $4.00 million for Raya and the Last Dragon this weekend.
As well as Raya and the Last Dragon held last weekend, Warner’s Tom & Jerry held up even better by declining a very slim 7 percent to gross an estimated $3.84 million. Tom & Jerry could hold up a bit better than Raya and the Last Dragon again this weekend, especially with Tom & Jerry looking to take less of a showtimes per location hit from last weekend in comparison to Raya and the Last Dragon. Also of note is that this weekend will represent the last weekend that Tom & Jerry is available on HBO Max (for now). Tom & Jerry could claim third place this weekend with $3.25 million, which would be a decrease of just 15 percent from last weekend.
Last weekend Lionsgate’s Chaos Walking and Roadside Attractions’ The Courier finished close to one another with respective third place and fourth place grosses of $1.92 million and $1.89 million. While critical reviews for The Courier have been significantly stronger than those for Chaos Walking and the location count difference between the two films will shrink somewhat this weekend, Chaos Walking could remain just ahead of The Courier in this weekend’s rankings, thanks in part to The Courier coming off of its opening weekend and in part to The Courier likely taking the bigger direct hit of the two films from this weekend’s debut of Nobody. Look for Chaos Walking to decline 27 percent this weekend to take fourth with $1.40 million and for The Courier to decrease 28 percent to round out this weekend’s top five with $1.35 million.
Turning to holdovers outside of this weekend’s top five, Universal and DreamWorks Animation’s The Croods: A New Age could decline 17 percent to gross $0.52 million, Focus’ Boogie could fall 33 percent to take in $0.40 million, Warner’s Wonder Woman 1984 could decrease 17 percent to claim $0.38 million and Open Road and Briarcliff’s The Marksman could slow 21 percent to register $0.37 million.