Weekend box office predictions are provided by Daniel Garris, courtesy of BoxOfficeReport.com.
After leading the box office each of the past two weekends, Disney’s Raya and the Last Dragon should top the box office once again this weekend. Last weekend the computer animated film from Walt Disney Animation Studios decreased just 33 percent to take in $5.71 million. Raya and the Last Dragon is likely to hold up even better this weekend, thanks in part to more theatres continuing to re-open throughout parts of California, including Los Angeles. Raya and the Last Dragon will be playing in 2,261 locations this weekend, which is an increase of 98 locations from last weekend. Raya and the Last Dragon will also be helped out once again this weekend by its strong critical reviews, continued strong word of mouth and no new family films entering the marketplace. Midweek holds have been especially strong for Raya and the Last Dragon this week; the film’s Wednesday performance was up 33 percent from the previous Wednesday. Raya and the Last Dragon could decline a slim 19 percent this weekend to take in $4.60 million.
Warner’s Tom & Jerry will look to claim second place for a third consecutive frame. Last weekend the computer animated / live-action hybrid was down a solid 37 percent to take in an estimated $4.08 million. It’s looking like Tom & Jerry won’t be holding onto its showtimes to the same degree it did last weekend at many theatres, but the re-opening of Los Angeles theatres should help offset that. A 30 percent decline would give Tom & Jerry $2.85 million this weekend. Also of note is that Tom & Jerry will pass the $30 million domestic mark this weekend; making it just the fourth film to reach that mark since the re-opening of theatres back in August (joining Tenet, The Croods: A New Age and Wonder Woman 1984).
Lionsgate’s Chaos Walking is likely to remain in third for a third straight weekend. Last weekend Chaos Walking declined a solid 40 percent to gross $2.25 million. While science fiction films and films adapted from young adult series are both typically quite front-loaded, Chaos Walking is benefiting from good word of mouth and from not having to face much competition for non-family audiences in the current marketplace. Chaos Walking will also get a bit of a boost this weekend from playing in 137 more locations than last weekend (for a total of 2,132 locations). Similarly to Tom & Jerry, it does look like Chaos Walking will see its showtimes per location take a bigger hit this weekend than last weekend at many theatres. Look for Chaos Walking to ease 29 percent to gross $1.60 million this weekend.
This weekend’s one new wide release is Roadside Attractions’ The Courier. The Dominic Cooke directed thriller set in the 1960s stars Benedict Cumberbatch, Merab Ninidze and Rachel Brosnahan. Critical reviews for The Courier have been good. The Courier will be playing in 1,433 locations this weekend and will have Thursday night preview shows beginning at 7PM. Similar to the opening weekends of Boogie and Land in recent weeks, it looks like The Courier will be getting less showtimes per location on the average than many other recent wide releases. In general, modern historical period pieces tend to be tough sells at the box office (even under more favorable market conditions). A modest per-location average of $837 for the weekend would transfer into a fourth place debut of $1.20 million for The Courier.
Last weekend Focus’ Boogie had a better than expected second weekend hold by declining 35 percent to take in $0.78 million. Boogie could have another very good hold this weekend, especially if the film performs well in newly re-opened Los Angeles theatres. Boogie will be playing in 1,184 locations this weekend, which is down 88 locations from last weekend. A $0.57 million take for Boogie would round out this weekend’s top five and represent a decrease of just 27 percent.
Sony Pictures Classics’ The Father is likely to see a box office boost this weekend on the heels of receiving six Academy Award nominations on Monday; including nominations for Best Picture, Best Actor (Anthony Hopkins), Best Supporting Actress (Olivia Colman) and Best Adapted Screenplay. Last weekend The Father debuted with $0.43 million in moderate release. A 15 percent increase from last weekend would give The Father a sixth place gross of $0.50 million this weekend.
Universal and DreamWorks Animation’s The Croods: A New Age and Open Road and Briarcliff’s The Marksman should both continue to hold up well this weekend. Last weekend The Croods: A New Age was down a very solid 31 percent to take in $0.54 million, while The Marksman was down a very slim 9 percent to register $0.45 million. With the additional aid of re-opened Los Angeles theatres, this weekend The Croods: A New Age could decline 17 percent to gross $0.45 million, while The Marksman could decrease 12 percent to take in a fairly similar $0.40 million.
Holdovers outside of this weekend’s top eight films that will still have a presence at the box office include Warner Bros. releases Wonder Woman 1984, The Little Things and Judas and the Black Messiah (which like The Father, also received six Academy Award nominations). Academy Award nominations (and the re-opening of Los Angeles theatres) should also give a boost this weekend to Focus’ Promising Young Woman (which received five nominations) and Disney and Searchlight’s Nomadland (which received six nominations), though whether or not official grosses begin to be reported for Nomadland remains to be seen.