Weekend Box Office Predictions: March 12 – 14, 2021

Weekend box office predictions are provided by Daniel Garris, courtesy of BoxOfficeReport.com.

Disney’s Raya and the Last Dragon appears set to lead the domestic box office for a second consecutive frame this weekend. The computer animated film from Walt Disney Animation Studios is coming off of an $8.50 million debut last weekend and has been registering solid grosses throughout the midweek. Critical reviews for Raya and the Last Dragon have been exceptional and the film also looks to be going over extremely well with audiences after receiving a strong A rating on CinemaScore. Under more typical circumstances, films from Walt Disney Animation Studios tend to display strong holding power, though whether or not Raya and the Last Dragon also being available via streaming as a premiere access title on Disney+ has a significant impact on holds going forward remains to be seen. Also helping Raya and the Last Dragon this weekend is that the film looks to be maintaining most of its showtimes from last weekend at holdover locations and will also be expanding to an additional 118 locations this weekend (for a location count of 2,163 this weekend). A decline of just 31 percent would transfer into a second weekend take of $5.90 million for Raya and the Last Dragon.

Warner’s Tom & Jerry will look to continue its very nice run by remaining in second place this weekend. Last weekend Tom & Jerry declined a sizable, but understandable 53 percent to gross an estimated $6.62 million in its second weekend. Tom & Jerry is likely to stabilize this weekend, especially since the film had to deal with the opening weekend of Raya and the Last Dragon last weekend and because thus far Warner Bros. day-and-date releases in general have been stabilizing in their respective third weekends after experiencing sharp second weekend declines. Like Raya and the Last DragonTom & Jerry will also be helped out this weekend by seeing its showtimes per location hold up very nicely at many locations in comparison to last weekend. Back in December, The Croods: A New Age declined 31 percent in its third weekend after decreasing 54 percent in its second weekend. Tom & Jerry could be looking at a similar type of holding pattern this weekend. Look for Tom & Jerry to decrease only 26 percent from last weekend to take in $4.90 million.

After a $3.78 million third place start last weekend, Lionsgate’s Chaos Walking should remain in third place this weekend. While critical reviews for Chaos Walking have been poor, the sci-fi film looks to be going over significantly better with audiences after receiving a respectable B rating on CinemaScore. There should be some natural front-loading for Chaos Walking throughout its run, but the lack of new direct competition this weekend will likely help balance that out, at least in the short term. Chaos Walking doesn’t look to be holding onto its showtimes from last weekend to quite the same degree as Raya and the Last Dragon and Tom & Jerry, but the film’s showtimes will still be holding over well at many locations. As of publishing, this weekend’s location count for Chaos Walking hasn’t been released, but the film is likely to play in at least a few more locations than it did last weekend. Chaos Walking could decline a solid 40 percent this weekend to gross $2.25 million.

Last weekend Focus’ Boogie debuted in fourth place with $1.20 million. At this time last week, critical reviews for Boogie were looking solid, but they have become more negative on the average as time has passed. Boogie also doesn’t look to be going over all that well with audiences after receiving a modest C+ rating on CinemaScore. Boogie does look to be holding most of its showtimes from last weekend, especially in New York City where the film performed relatively strong last weekend. The film will also be playing in 20 more locations this weekend than last weekend (for a total of 1,272 locations this weekend). With that said, Boogie is still likely to experience this weekend’s sharpest second weekend percentage decline among last weekend’s three new wide releases. A sizable 48 percent decrease would give Boogie a fourth place take of $0.63 million this weekend.

Universal and DreamWorks Animation’s The Croods: A New Age will look to once again round out the weekend’s top five. Last weekend The Croods: A New Age slowed 37 percent to gross $0.79 million. With the opening weekends of Tom & Jerry and Raya and the Last Dragon both out of the way, The Croods: A New Age could start to re-stabilize this weekend. The Croods: A New Age will be playing in 1,440 locations this weekend, which is a decrease of just 164 from last weekend. Look for The Croods: A New Age to decline 26 percent this weekend to gross $0.58 million.

As for some of this weekend’s other holdovers, Open Road and Briarcliff’s The Marksman could decrease a very slim 10 percent to take in $0.45 million, Warner’s The Little Things could decline 36 percent to gross $0.35 million and fellow Warner Bros. release Wonder Woman 1984 could fall 35 percent to register $0.33 million.

Receiving a nationwide expansion this weekend is Sony Pictures Classics’ The Father. The critically acclaimed drama was directed by Florian Zeller and stars Anthony Hopkins and Olivia Colman. Hopkins and Colman are both awards season contenders, with both having received Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild nominations for their performances. The Father has been playing in select cities since February 26, but grosses haven’t been reported for the film’s performance thus far. BoxOfficeReport isn’t making an official prediction for The Father this weekend, but the film is likely to place somewhere in the bottom half of this weekend’s top ten if weekend grosses are reported for the film.

Sony’s Long Weekend will also arrive in theatres this weekend (in 814 locations), while Amazon Studios’ Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (which has been available on streaming via Amazon Prime Video since this past October) will receive a theatrical release at select locations this weekend. BoxOfficeReport isn’t making an official prediction for either film this weekend.

Read full predictions at BoxOfficeReport.com

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