Awards analysis is provided by Sean from @MathTeacherMovies.
This has been an unprecedented year for film, awards, going outside, and anything in between and that is also the case with the Best Supporting Actress category at the Oscars, where truly any of the five ladies nominated can win. Therefore, each performance will be analyzed along with a strong argument for their win.
Glenn Close seems like the most likely to win for her performance in Hillbilly Elegy as this will be her eighth nomination without a win. Therefore, she is not only due but is a legend in Hollywood. However, this performance itself is fairly unliked and caked in makeup in a movie also unliked, but that hasn’t stopped the Academy before. What is the nail in the coffin is that her performance was also nominated for a Razzie for worst performance and while those awards don’t hold much credibility, it still wouldn’t be a good visual if it won.
Maria Bakalova is a tremendous success story who managed to grab a nomination for a funny and very unique performance from Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, a movie that is surprising to even see listed at the Oscars. She has been winning a ton of preliminary awards and this would be an interesting and quirky pick that the younger voters might gravitate toward. Yet there are still older voters and this is still a Borat movie and while it is funny and timely, that might be too much of a stain to get her to have the win.
MInari is the dark horse to win for Best Picture but for that accomplishment to take place, the film needs to have a few other Oscars under its belt and one of the awards might be the Best Supporting Actress for Youn Yuh-Jung. She gives one of the top performances in this category and is playing a beloved character in a beloved movie. Her only drawback is recognition of both the movie and her name and while both are climbing in popularity, theres a chance it won’t be enough.
Amanda Seyfried was thought of as the frontrunner at one time for her performance in Mank, but missing the SAG nomination made her lucky to even be nominated for an Oscar. However, with no clear front runner she still has a huge chance to win especially if with the chance to honor the film, which probably won’t receive any other above the line wins. Seyfried is also well liked in close circles and does have an impactful performance for a small role.
The least likely of the nominees to get the win is probably Olivia Colman for The Father only because she is a recent winner and the only past winner on this list. It would also be pretty rough looking for her to once again beat Glenn Close. However, these are not deal breakers and she is still beloved by the public and the Academy and talented with a damn fine performance.
The last time this category was so unpredictable was in 2007 with Amy Ryan from Gone Baby Gone, Ruby Dee from American Gangster, Tilda Swinton from Michael Clayton, Cate Blanchett from I’m Not There, and Saorise Ronan in Atonement. Throughout the season, every one of these nominees received various prerequisite awards and it truly came down to that night when Swinton took home the top prize. While there are a few slight front runners this year, it seems like it will be a similar outcome of a complete surprise.
Regardless of what the Razzies may think about Close’s performance and what buttoned ups may think of Bakalova’s performance, all of these nominees are deserving and no matter what name is in the envelope, it will be a great addition to the list of Best Supporting Actress winners.
Let me know what you think at @mathteachermovies on Instagram.