Awards analysis is provided by Sean from @MathTeacherMovies.
If there is one consistency in the Golden Globes, it is their surprises. Some of those surprises turn the tide of award season and some of them confirm possible new award wins or nominations. Or, the surprises mean nothing and the currents of the award season rage on.
Nomadland winning Best Picture is a giant forward step for the film’s Oscar chances for the Best Picture race. However, the race is far from over. The Globes haven’t done as good of a job of predicting the Oscar Best Picture as they used to. While Nomadland is an incredible film, will it capture the love of everybody?
This is one of the few easy ones to figure out after last night. Chloe Zhao was already the front runner as the Best Director and this was the Globe’s category to screw up. The only threat in the Oscar race is David Fincher’s seniority which could be attractive to the director’s branch of the Academy, but it’s not likely.
There is no doubt in my mind that Chadwick Boseman has this award lined up. He gave a great performance and this will cement his legacy as a great man whose talent inspired many (did you see that segment during the Globe where kids were being interviewed?!)
On another note, Taylor Simone Ledward, Boseman’s wife, gave an emotionally poignant acceptance speech on his behalf that both honored him and approached his praise from a humble perspective. If the Oscars get it right, which I hope they do, we will be seeing her again.
This is a huge win for Andra Day who gives a wonderful performance in a below average movie. While there are other more famous and probably more deserving nominees who will most likely win the big award, this will lead to serious consideration for her nomination.
With respect to the Best Actress race for the Oscars, there is almost no chance that Day will win and there is no clear frontrunner: Mulligan, McDormand, and Davis are fighting for the lead.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
This definitely is the first of many awards for Daniel Kaluuya and this is one of many steps in solidifying Daniel Kaluuya’s Oscar win. There is still a long road ahead, but with no other clear frontrunner, he seems to be in perfect position for the award.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Jodie Foster winning is the most Globes thing to ever Globe in terms of a surprise win. It’s too soon to tell if this win will lead to an Oscars nomination for Foster, but the movie doesn’t seem to have the best pull.
The big question now is what this means for Glenn Close’s chances of winning the Oscar. She is still favored to win, but the momentum could shift in the next few weeks.
It now seems entirely unlikely that Maria Bakalova will receive an Oscars nomination for this category as she was already flirting with fifth or sixth place in order to get in.
Trial of the Chicago 7 winning this award all but confirms its win when the Oscars come along. This leaves the Adapted Screenplay category wide open, but that will still probably go to Nomadland. While The Father could pose a threat, Nomadland has the most momentum..
Best Original Song
I was curious why the song from The Life Ahead won last night and then I realized Diane Warren wrote the song and now everything makes sense. Warren is like Leonardo DiCaprio or Roger Deakins of the Oscars in that has been nominated several times but has never won. With no other song being that popular this year, this could be the moment Diane Warren finally wins her Oscar. There will hopefully be a few different and more fun song nominees in a few weeks, but if that doesn’t happen “Io Si (Seen)” will be the strongest contender.
Best International Film
Thanks to the unabashed idiocy of the HFPA, Minari winning Best Foreign Film does not help predicting Best International Film at the Oscars due to it obviously and logically not qualifying for that category. The clear frontrunner is still Another Round.
Best Animated Feature
There was a chance of Wolfwalkers sweeping in and grabbing the award from the Pixar titan known as Soul. Alas, Soul is essentially a lock for Best Animated Feature and probably would have been regardless of last night’s Globes win
Best Original Score
Much like its hold on Best Animated Feature, Soul is all but certain to win Best Original Score.
Last night was a fascinating look into what the Oscars nominations will look like in a few weeks!