Weekend box office predictions are provided by Daniel Garris, courtesy of BoxOfficeReport.com.
Warner’s The Little Things will look to lead the weekend box office for a second consecutive frame this weekend. The John Lee Hancock directed thriller starring Denzel Washington, Rami Malek and Jared Leto was off to a healthy estimated start of $4.7 million last weekend (which represented the fifth largest opening weekend since theatres re-opened back in August). Thanks in part to the film’s solid per-location average of $2,165 last weekend and no new wide releases entering the marketplace this weekend, The Little Things will be maintaining most of its showtimes from last weekend at many theatres this weekend (similar to The Marksman two weeks ago). While that will help this weekend’s hold; at the same time The Little Things (and the marketplace in general) will obviously have to contend with Super Bowl LV this weekend. Relatively speaking, Warner’s new release strategy of releasing films day-and-date theatrically and on HBO Max appeared to take much more of a toll on the second weekend performance of Wonder Woman 1984 than its opening weekend performance, which could also come into play for the second weekend of The Little Things. Mixed critical reviews and average word of mouth (the film received a B- rating on CinemaScore) could also help slow The Little Things a bit this weekend. A 47 percent decline would give The Little Things a second weekend take of $2.50 million.
Universal and DreamWorks Animation’s The Croods: A New Age appears set to claim second place for a third consecutive weekend. Last weekend The Croods: A New Age increased 1 percent to take in $1.82 million. And the film hasn’t been slowing down in the slightest during the midweek this week, as Wednesday’s take was up an impressive 25 percent over last Wednesday’s gross. Wednesday’s performance also suggests that this weekend’s moderate / semi-wide release of Earwig and the Witch (which opened on Wednesday) won’t have much of an impact on The Croods: A New Age. In general, family films also tend to have better holds over Super Bowl weekend than non-family films and The Croods: A New Age will also be playing in 34 more locations this weekend than last weekend (for a total of 1,935 locations). The Croods: A New Age could have another tremendous hold this weekend, as a very slim 4 percent decline would transfer into $1.75 million for the frame.
Upon no longer being available on HBO Max, Warner’s Wonder Woman 1984 declined a slim 13 percent last weekend to take in an estimated $1.30 million for third. Wonder Woman 1984 shouldn’t be able to duplicate that type of hold over Super Bowl weekend, but the superhero sequel is still likely to hold up well once again this weekend. A 23 percent decline would give Wonder Woman 1984 a third place take of $1.00 million. Wonder Woman 1984 is also set to surpass the $40 million domestic mark this weekend; making it the third film since theatres re-opened to do so (joining fellow Warner Bros. release Tenet and The Croods: A New Age).
Open Road and Briarcliff’s The Marksman fell 38 percent and three spots to fourth with $1.25 million last weekend, as the Liam Neeson-led film took a direct hit from the release of The Little Things. This weekend The Marksman could experience a fairly similar decline as it will take one of the more direct hits of any film from Super Bowl LV. A 40 percent slide would keep The Marksman in fourth place with $0.75 million.
Last weekend Sony’s Monster Hunter declined a slim 11 percent to take in $0.74 million for fifth. Similar to Wonder Woman 1984, Monster Hunter likely won’t be able to duplicate that type of hold against the Super Bowl, but should still continue to hold up well this weekend nonetheless. Monster Hunter could take in $0.58 million to remain in fifth this weekend, which would represent a decline of just 21 percent.
Universal’s News of the World and Focus’ Promising Young Woman have both been positioned to be awards season contenders this year. On Wednesday, Promising Young Woman received four Golden Globe nominations (for Best Motion Picture – Drama, Best Actress in a Drama, Best Director & Best Screenplay) while News of the World wasn’t as prominent with nominations for Best Supporting Actress and Best Score. With this week’s nominations in mind, Promising Young Woman should experience a better hold this weekend, especially since News of the World will take a larger hit from the Super Bowl as well. News of the World could decline 35 percent to gross $0.35 million, while Promising Young Woman could decrease a slim 13 percent to gross $0.23 million.
As mentioned, this weekend will also see the moderate / semi-wide release of Studio Ghibli’s Earwig and the Witch by GKIDS and Fathom Events. The Gorō Miyazaki directed film represents the first 3D computer animated film from Studio Ghibli. Earwig and the Witch began its theatrical run on Wednesday and will also be available on HBO Max beginning on Friday (February 5). In addition to playing on HBO Max, potential for Earwig and the Witch will be further limited by the film receiving a modest amount of screenings at most theatres this weekend and from most California and New York theatres remaining closed. BoxOfficeReport isn’t making an official prediction for Earwig and the Witch this weekend, but if box office results are reported for the film it could appear somewhere towards the bottom of this weekend’s top 8 films.
Also being released this weekend is a 4K re-issue of 2001’s The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring. The Peter Jackson directed film from Warner’s New Line will be playing on select IMAX screens this weekend, while 2002’s The Two Towers and 2003’s The Return of the King are both scheduled to be released on IMAX screens next week on February 12. BoxOfficeReport isn’t making an official prediction for this weekend’s re-issue of The Fellowship of the Ring.