Weekend Box Office Predictions: February 26 – 28, 2021

Weekend box office predictions are provided by Daniel Garris, courtesy of BoxOfficeReport.com.

Warner’s Tom & Jerry is set to comfortably lead the domestic box office upon arriving in the marketplace this weekend. The computer animated / live-action hybrid was directed by Tim Story and features Chloë Grace Moretz and Michael Peña in live action roles. Tom & Jerry represents the first theatrical Tom & Jerry film since 1992’s Tom and Jerry: The Movie (which performed poorly at the box office). Tom & Jerry will be opening day-and-date this weekend theatrically and via streaming on HBO Max. Relatively speaking, Warner’s current distribution model hasn’t appeared to have much of a negative impact on the opening weekends of its films (though it does look to be having much more of an impact on second weekend performances). Tom & Jerry has already been playing in select international markets the past two weeks, with the film having grossed $5.1 million from 16 international markets as of this past Sunday. One concerning sign for Tom & Jerry is that as of publishing this article on Thursday afternoon, critical reviews for the film are still embargoed.

While Tom & Jerry doesn’t have a built-in audience the same size of other high-profile animated properties, it will be arriving in a marketplace that is starving for new product (especially new family films). Due in part to the overall lack of recent product for family audiences, Universal and DreamWorks Animation’s The Croods: A New Age and 101 Studios’ The War with Grandpa have both had very lengthy runs with current total gross to opening weekend ratios above 5 to 1. As for the opening weekend performances of those films, The Croods: A New Age took in $9.72 million (which was somewhat deflated from that film’s Wednesday opening) while The War with Grandpa started with $3.62 million. Tom & Jerry is likely to open somewhere in between those two films, especially since the opening weekend showtimes per-location average for Tom & Jerry will be higher than it was for The War with Grandpa, but lower than it was for The Croods: A New Age at many theatres. Tom & Jerry arriving only one week before Disney’s Raya and the Last Dragon enters the marketplace on March 5 could also boost initial demand a bit for Tom & Jerry this weekend. Look for Tom & Jerry to debut with $6.50 million this weekend, which would likely give the film a per-location average just under $3,000 and would represent the fifth largest opening weekend since the re-opening of domestic theatres this past August.

Fellow family film Universal and DreamWorks Animation’s The Croods: A New Age is likely to take second place this weekend. Last weekend The Croods: A New Age led the weekend box office for a second consecutive frame (and for the fifth time overall) after declining a slim 17 percent to gross $1.72 million. While The Croods: A New Age will finally be dealing with new competition for family audiences this weekend, it will also have some added advantages to help balance that out. Due in part to The Croods: A New Age continuing to out-perform other films in the current marketplace, The Croods: A New Age will be holding onto its showtimes better than other wide releases this weekend. The Croods: A New Age (and the marketplace in general) should also get an added boost this weekend from last weekend’s grosses having been deflated a bit from some theatres being closed throughout parts of Texas in the aftermath of the winter storm that hit the state. It’s also possible that this weekend’s newsworthy announcement of New York City movie theatres being able to re-open on March 5 could help domestic moviegoers in general feel a bit more comfortable about returning to theatres, though that remains to be seen. With all of that in mind, The Croods: A New Age could decline just 23 percent this weekend to take in $1.33 million.

Warner’s The Little Things decreased 39 percent last weekend to take second with an estimated $1.21 million. The Little Things should re-stabilize this weekend due in part to the film likely taking a bigger hit than other wide releases from last weekend’s theatre closings in parts of Texas. Also of note this weekend is that The Little Things will be leaving HBO Max after Sunday. A 25 percent decline would give The Little Things a third place take of $0.90 million this weekend.

Warner’s Wonder Woman 1984 and Open Road and Briarcliff’s The Marksman continued to perform similarly to one another in last weekend’s rankings and should continue to do so this weekend. Last weekend Wonder Woman 1984 decreased 27 percent to take in an estimated $0.81 million, while The Marksman declined 29 percent to gross $0.78 million. This weekend both films could decline 23 percent, which would give Wonder Woman 1984 a fourth place take of $0.62 million and The Marksman a fifth place gross of $0.60 million for the frame.

Last weekend Warner’s Judas and the Black Messiah declined a sharp 55 percent to take third with an estimated $0.91 million. Previously, Warner’s Wonder Woman 1984 and The Little Things both stabilized in their respective third weekends after experiencing sharp second weekend declines, so Judas and the Black Messiah is likely to follow the trend and stabilize this weekend. At the same time, Judas and the Black Messiah will also see its showtimes per location average take the biggest hit of any wide release this weekend at many theatres. A 36 percent decline from last weekend would transfer into a sixth place take of $0.58 million for Judas and the Black Messiah.

This past weekend Sony’s Monster Hunter declined 24 percent to gross $0.52 million, while Focus’ Land followed closely behind with $0.50 million after decreasing 44 percent from its opening weekend performance. This weekend Monster Hunter could ease a slim 19 percent to take in $0.42 million, while Land (which will get a small boost from playing in an additional 98 locations this weekend in comparison to last weekend) could slow 24 percent to gross $0.38 million.

While official grosses weren’t released for Disney and Searchlight’s Nomadland last weekend, unofficial industry estimates placed the film’s performance in the same neighborhood as Monster Hunter and Land last weekend. With the aid of terrific critical reviews, buzz from this Sunday’s Golden Globe Awards ceremony and maintaining most of its showtimes from last weekend at many theatres, Nomadland is likely to have a strong second weekend hold this weekend. While BoxOfficeReport isn’t making an official prediction for Nomadland this weekend, the film should continue to perform in the same general area as Monster Hunter and Land this weekend.

Read full predictions at BoxOfficeReport.com

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