Weekend Box Office Predictions: February 19 – 21, 2020

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Weekend box office predictions are provided by Daniel Garris, courtesy of BoxOfficeReport.com.

After returning to first place at the box office last weekend with respective three-day and four-day takes of $2.08 million and $2.58 million, this weekend Universal and DreamWorks Animation’s The Croods: A New Age will look to lead the weekend box office for a second consecutive frame (and for the fifth time overall). The Croods: A New Age has displayed terrific holding power throughout its theatrical run, which is now entering its thirteenth week. This weekend’s box office in general will take a bit of a hit from last Sunday’s grosses being inflated by the Valentine’s Day holiday and from some theatres being closed throughout parts of Texas this weekend due to the aftermath of the winter storm that hit the state. At the same time, with a location count of 1,913 this weekend, The Croods: A New Age will actually be playing in 23 more locations than it did last weekend, which could help balance out those closed locations in Texas this weekend. The Croods: A New Age could also get a bit of a boost this weekend from moviegoers who want to catch the film before Warner’s Tom & Jerry opens day-and-date theatrically and via streaming on HBO Max next weekend on February 26. A 21 percent decline from last weekend’s three-day performance would transfer into $1.65 million for The Croods: A New Age this weekend. That would push the film’s domestic total past the $50 million domestic mark; making The Croods: A New Age only the second film to reach that mark since theatres re-opened back in August (joining Tenet).

On the heels of a sharp second weekend decline, Warner’s The Little Things rebounded quite nicely last weekend with respective estimated three-day and four-day grosses of $2.05 million and $2.48 million. This weekend The Little Things will be helped by holding onto more of its showtimes than it did last weekend, but at the same time could also take a larger hit than other films this weekend from the theatre closings in Texas (where the film has been performing relatively well). Last weekend The Little Things finished just behind fellow Warner Bros. release Judas and the Black Messiah and this weekend The Little Things could inch just ahead of Judas and the Black Messiah to claim second place. A 39 percent decrease from last weekend’s three-day take would give The Little Things $1.25 million this weekend.

Warner’s Judas and the Black Messiah debuted with respective estimated three-day and four-day starts of $2.07 million and $2.49 million last weekend. Warner’s previous day-and-date releases (Wonder Woman 1984 and The Little Things) both experienced very sharp second weekend percentage declines. While that trend should come into play somewhat for Judas and the Black Messiah as well, the film likely won’t fall as hard in its second weekend as Wonder Woman 1984 and The Little Things did, due in part to the film’s terrific critical reviews and strong word of mouth (Judas and the Black Messiah received an A rating on CinemaScore), as well as having less built-in front-loading to begin with. Judas and the Black Messiah could gross $1.20 million this weekend, which would represent a respectable 42 percent decline from last weekend’s three-day start and place the film just behind The Little Things this weekend.

Last weekend Warner’s Wonder Woman 1984 and Open Road and Briarcliff’s The Marksman remained close to one another in the rankings; Wonder Woman 1984 had estimated three-day and four-day grosses of $1.14 million and $1.34 million, while The Marksman had three-day and four-day grosses of $1.10 million and $1.20 million. The two films are likely to remain close to one another in this weekend’s rankings. Wonder Woman 1984 could decline 30 percent from last weekend’s three-day haul to take in $0.80 million, while The Marksman could decrease 32 percent to gross $0.75 million this weekend.

This weekend’s highest profile new release is Disney and Searchlight’s Nomadland. The critically acclaimed Chloé Zhao directed film starring Frances McDormand is one of this year’s awards season favorites. After being released exclusively on select IMAX screens back on January 29, Nomadland is opening day-and-date this weekend theatrically and via streaming on Hulu. Grosses from the film’s IMAX run haven’t been officially reported yet and as of publishing this article, an official location count for this weekend hasn’t been reported either (though the film looks to be playing in moderate / semi-wide release this weekend). As a result, BoxOfficeReport isn’t making an official opening weekend prediction for Nomadland. If grosses are reported for the film this weekend, Nomadland could perform in the same general area as Wonder Woman 1984 and The Marksman this weekend to finish anywhere from fourth to sixth place (depending in part on the film’s location count).

Meanwhile, after debuting with respective three-day and four-day grosses of $0.90 million and $0.99 million last weekend, Focus’ Land could decline 37 percent this weekend to take in $0.57 million. Sony’s Monster Hunter should continue to hold up well by decreasing 27 percent to gross $0.50 million, while Universal’s News of the World could slow 31 percent to register $0.26 million.

Opening day-and-date this weekend with a limited theatrical release in 239 locations is IFC Films’ Blithe Spirit. The Edward Hall directed film stars Dan Stevens, Leslie Mann, Isla Fisher and Judi Dench. Critical reviews for the film have been poor. BoxOfficeReport isn’t making an official prediction for Blithe Spirit this weekend.

Read full predictions at BoxOfficeReport.com

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