Awards analysis is provided by Sean from @MathTeacherMovies.
“Awards Season” consists of three large contests: the Academy Awards (or the Oscars), the Golden Globes, and the Screen Actors Guild Awards. This week, both the Golden Globes and SAG nominations were announced and, yeah, we have some questions.
It’s the same every awards season: we start to think that the nominations will follow the patterns of previous Academy Awards, and then the Golden Globes come in and blow everything up with absolutely ridiculous choices. The greatest mystery is not only why the Globes are so ridiculous, but also why we actually care about them in comparison to the Academy Awards.These nominations are decided by 100 out-of-touch members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association who sometimes don’t even watch the films and just want to give love to popular choices. That being said, half of this column will be about them, as they can influence the narratives of the Oscars but can sometimes be pure lunacy
The SAG Award nominations were announced the day after the Golden Globes. Sanity was generally restored with its rational nominations, but they still proved to be somewhat surprising. These nominations are typically a predictor of the Oscars because many Guild members are also Academy members. As such, sometimes the SAG nominations mirror those of the Oscars, but they can also include surprises as well as snubs that make no sense.
The four acting nominations are those most shaken up by this week’s nominations. Will the Globes and SAGs change the course of the Oscars nominations? Read on to find out.
The Golden Globe and SAG nominations for this category were full of surprises. The most surprising and egregious move from the Globes and the SAG was the snub of Delroy Lindo in Da 5 Bloods. Not only was it a performance deserving of nominations, but the buzz surrounding his performance practically solidified his chances. It’s rare for an actor to be passed up for a SAG and Globe nomination and then get an Oscar nomination, but it’s not impossible.I hope the Academy will include him.
The nominations for Tahra Rahim (Golden Globe) in The Mauritanian and Steven Yuen (SAG) in Minari were surprises, so these are very much in line with Lindo’s surprise snub.
The least surprising was Gary Oldman’s nomination for both a SAG and Golden Globe award for Mank, so it is almost certain he will receive an Oscar nomination. Finally, Chadwick Boseman, Anthony Hopkins, and Riz Ahmed are essentially locks for Best Actor in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Father, and Sound of Metal respectively.
Based on last week’s nominations, there are four very solid locks for Best Actress Oscar nominations: Viola Davis for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Vanessa Kirby for Pieces of a Woman, Frances McDormand for Nomadland, and Carey Mulligan for Promising Young Woman.
The fifth spot could go anywhere but has two new possibilities with Globe nominee Andra Day from The United States vs. Billie Holiday or SAG nominee Amy Adams from Hillbilly Elegy.
There is a slight chance that the fifth nomination could go to Zendaya in Malcolm and Marie and Sophia Loren in The Life Ahead but those seem more and more like long shots.
Best Supporting Actor
The Best Supporting Actor race received one major upend this week: Jared Leto for The Little Things. This nomination seemed to be typical erratic behavior of the Globes, but when Leto also got the SAG nomination, it has become very likely that he will be one of the five nominees for the Oscar. This still seems crazy and I don’t think he deserves the nomination, it seems like a possibility.
Sacha Baron Cohen, Daniel Kaluuya, and Leslie Odom, Jr. each got Golden Globes and SAG nominations, so they will definitely be nominated for Oscars.
The wildcard nominations are Bill Murray for On the Rocks and Chadwick Boseman for Da 5 Bloods. Murray is older and more popular working with a popular director which could lend itself to an Oscars nomination. However, there is significant buzz that Boseman will be nominated posthumously for his performance in Da 5 Bloods even though he is almost set to win Best Actor for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. These could really go either way.
Best Supporting Actress
Helena Zengel for News of the World was not too high on the Oscar buzz before this week, but after getting nominations for both Golden Globe and SAG awards, she has a very good chance of getting an Oscar nomination.
Like Lindo, Ellen Burstyn was not nominated for a Globe Globe or a SAG for Pieces of a Woman, which will make things very difficult for her when it comes to the Oscar race, but it’s still possible because she is so popular with the Academy.
Three other likely Oscar nominations are Glenn Close for Hillbilly Elegy, Maria Bakalova for Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, and Olivia Colman for The Father as they received nominations for the SAGs and the Globes.
Jodie Foster had been gaining buzz before this week’s nominations for her performance in The Mauritanian and snagged a Globe nomination, but it doesn’t seem likely that she’ll be nominated for the Oscar. Youn Yuh-Jung is another possible contender for Minari after her SAG nomination, but also a long shot.
Finally, Amanda Seyfriend for Mank was considered not only a lock for a nomination, but also a possible winner. However, her absence in the SAG nominations will raise questions. This may be because her early acting career did not include any serious films, but this does not make her omission from either of this week’s announcements less shocking.
See you next week!
Let me know what you think of my projections at @mathteachermovies on Instagram.