Weekend Box Office Predictions: January 1 – 3, 2020

Weekend box office predictions are provided by Daniel Garris, courtesy of BoxOfficeReport.com.

After a relatively successful start last weekend, Warner’s Wonder Woman 1984 will look to comfortably remain in first place at the box office over New Year’s weekend. Wonder Woman 1984 debuted with an estimated $16.7 million last weekend, which represented the largest opening weekend performance of any film since domestic theatres opened back up in August. In a very different theatrical environment, 2017’s Wonder Woman declined 43 percent in its second weekend. While word of mouth and critical reviews for Wonder Woman 1984 haven’t been as strong as word of mouth and critical reviews were for Wonder Woman, the New Year’s holiday frame should help to ease the second weekend decline for Wonder Woman 1984 a bit. Last weekend’s debut of Wonder Woman 1984 also didn’t have the inflation from Thursday night preview shows that a high profile comic book adaptation would typically have (including 2017’s Wonder Woman). After the strong per-location average of Wonder Woman 1984 last weekend, it also appears that the film’s showtimes per location average will be holding up especially well this weekend. Percentage wise, one of the better second weekend comparisons for Wonder Woman 1984 may be Sherlock Holmes, which declined 41 percent in its second frame during New Year’s weekend back in 2010. Wonder Woman 1984 is likely to fall off a bit more this weekend, as a 46 percent decline would give the film a second weekend take of $9.10 million.

Even with the film being available on PVOD for a couple of weeks now, Universal and DreamWorks Animation’s The Croods: A New Age has continued to hold up well at the box office. Last weekend The Croods: A New Age declined just 16 percent to take third place with $1.75 million. The Croods: A New Age continues to benefit from strong word of mouth and from the continued lack of any other computer animated films in the marketplace. This weekend The Croods: A New Age will be adding 25 locations to its location count (for a total of 1,751 locations) and also looks to be getting slightly more showtimes at some locations than it did last weekend. Family films tend to hold up very well over New Year’s weekend, so it’s very possible that The Croods: A New Age could experience an increase over last weekend’s performance to move into second place this weekend. A 15 percent uptick over last weekend would transfer into a $2.00 million take for The Croods: A New Age this weekend.

Entering its second week of release this weekend is fellow Universal release News of the World. Last weekend News of the World debuted in second place with a less-than-expected $2.25 million. Despite strong critical reviews, the Tom Hanks-led western hasn’t been able to get out of the shadow of Wonder Woman 1984 at the box office thus far. News of the World is the type of Christmas weekend release that should typically have a lengthy run at the box office, though during its first week of release the film has displayed some initial front-loading towards its inflated Christmas Day performance. With that in mind, News of the World could experience a very solid, but not great, hold this weekend and continue to stabilize throughout January (especially if the film ends up being a major awards season player after all). A 24 percent decrease from last weekend would place News of the World in third this weekend with $1.70 million. News of the World is playing in 1,928 locations this weekend (which is an increase of 28 locations from last weekend).

Last weekend Sony’s Monster Hunter declined a sharp 49 percent to land in fourth place with an estimated $1.13 million. Monster Hunter likely won’t fall quite that hard this weekend (due in part to taking a direct hit from Wonder Woman 1984 last weekend), but is still likely to remain front-loaded (especially by holiday season standards). Monster Hunter could decrease 35 percent this weekend to remain in fourth place with $0.73 million.

Focus’ Promising Young Woman and Lionsgate’s Fatale were close to one another last weekend with respective Christmas weekend grosses of $0.72 million and $0.66 million. The two films have remained close to one another during the holiday midweek and should remain close to one another over the weekend. Relatively speaking, both films could get a bit of a boost this weekend from not being the most Christmas Day friendly choices last weekend. Promising Young Woman has also gone over well with both critics and audiences who have seen the film. This weekend Promising Young Woman could decline just 12 percent to take fifth with $0.63 million, while Fatale could decrease a slim 9 percent to take sixth with a similar $0.60 million. This weekend’s location counts are 1,333 for Promising Young Woman (an increase of 23 locations) and 1,183 for Fatale (an increase of 15 locations).

In other news this weekend, Disney will be re-issuing 20th Century’s 1979 sci-fi horror classic Alien. This weekend’s re-release of Alien will only be a moderate one, as the Ridley Scott directed film starring Sigourney Weaver and Tom Skerritt will be playing in 505 locations this weekend. BoxOfficeReport isn’t making an official prediction for Alien this weekend, but the film is likely to finish in eighth place for the frame (behind Roadside’s Pinocchio).

Read full predictions at BoxOfficeReport.com

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