Weekend box office predictions are provided by Daniel Garris, courtesy of BoxOfficeReport.com.
This weekend Open Road and Briarcliff’s The Marksman will look to end the three-week run of Wonder Woman 1984 at the top of the box office. The Marksman is the latest action-thriller starring Liam Neeson and was directed by Robert Lorenz. This past October Open Road and Briarcliff had relative success with Honest Thief, another action-thriller starring Neeson. Honest Thief took in $3.61 million during its first weekend of wide release (a week after opening in Canada) and went on to gross $14.16 million domestically. Even with the aid of the four-day Martin Luther King holiday weekend, the four-day debut of The Marksman is unlikely to match the three-day opening of Honest Thief due in part to The Marksman arriving only a few months after Honest Thief and to The Marksman opening in 1,975 locations this weekend (450 fewer locations than the 2,425 locations Honest Thief played in during its first weekend of wide release). Unlike Honest Thief, The Marksman won’t be playing on IMAX screens, but the film will be playing on some non-IMAX PLF screens this weekend. Critical reviews for The Marksman have been mostly negative and the film will have Thursday night preview shows beginning as early as 5 PM. In addition to Neeson’s fanbase, The Marksman could be helped out a bit this weekend by the film being the first new wide release in the marketplace since Christmas Day. The Marksman could be looking at a first place four-day start of $2.80 million, which would give the film a per-location average just under $1,420 for the holiday frame.
After leading the box office for the past three weeks, Warner’s Wonder Woman 1984 is likely to find itself in a close race for second place this weekend with Universal’s The Croods: A New Age. Last weekend Wonder Woman 1984 declined 44 percent to take in an estimated $3.00 million. That actually represented a respectable post-New Year’s hold for a higher-profile film, especially given how hard Wonder Woman 1984 fell during New Year’s weekend. Wonder Woman 1984 should continue to stabilize this weekend, but at the same time should also still experience this weekend’s largest percentage decline among wide releases, in part from seeing its showtimes per location average continuing to take a significant hit at many theatres. Wonder Woman 1984 could take in $2.30 million over the four-day holiday frame, which would represent a 23 percent decline from last weekend’s three-day frame.
Universal and DreamWorks Animation’s The Croods: A New Age declined just 19 percent last weekend to take in $1.81 million and should continue to hold up very well this weekend. In addition to continuing to benefit from good critical reviews, strong word of mouth and the lack of new competition for family audiences, The Croods: A New Age will also benefit from the four-day Martin Luther King holiday frame (family films typically hold up very well over MLK weekend). The Croods: A New Age will be playing in 1,855 locations this weekend (an increase of 37 locations over last weekend) and will once again see its showtimes per location average hold up very nicely at many theatres. A strong 24 percent increase over last weekend would give The Croods: A New Age a four-day holiday take of $2.25 million and place the film in a close race with Wonder Woman 1984 for second place over the four-day frame.
Universal’s News of the World and Sony’s Monster Hunter should claim fourth and fifth place this weekend. Last weekend News of the World decreased 27 percent to gross $1.24 million and Monster Hunter declined a slim 12 percent to take in $1.11 million. While Monster Hunter has held up better than News of the World each of the past two weekends, that trend may reverse this weekend as during the midweek this week News of the World has been having better percentage holds in comparison to last week than Monster Hunter has had. Respective location counts this weekend are 1,953 locations for News of the World and 1,694 locations for Monster Hunter. For the four-day frame, News of the World could decrease 7 percent from last weekend to take in $1.15 million for fourth place, while Monster Hunter could decline 10 percent to gross $1.00 million for fifth place.
Last weekend Lionsgate’s Fatale decreased a very slim 6 percent to gross $0.66 million, while Focus’ Promising Young Woman decreased just 18 percent to gross $0.57 million. This weekend Fatale could increase 10 percent for a sixth-place four-day holiday gross of $0.72 million, while Promising Young Woman could decrease 8 percent to take seventh with $0.52 million. Respective location counts this weekend are 1,333 locations for Promising Young Woman and 1,175 locations for Fatale.
This weekend will also see Disney re-release 2000’s The Emperor’s New Groove and IFC Films release MLK/FBI. The Emperor’s New Groove will be playing in 744 locations, while MLK/FBI will be playing in 120 locations. MLK/FBI; a Sam Pollard directed documentary on the FBI’s surveillance of Dr. Martin Luther King Jr., has received very strong critical reviews and is being released day-and-date this weekend with a PVOD release. BoxOfficeReport isn’t making official predictions for The Emperor’s New Groove and MLK/FBI this weekend.